Daniel Kahneman on Thinking Quotes

"He weights losses about twice as much as gains, which is normal. Ch. 26, "Prospect theory" p. 288."

"Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance. Ch. 19, "The illusion of understanding" p. 201."

"There's literally no difference between a physician recognizing a disease from a "facial expression", and a little child pointing to something and saying "doggie". Talks at Google - Nov 10, 2011"

"A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth. Ch. 5, "Cognitive ease" p. 62."

"It took Francis Galton several years to figure out that correlation and regression are not two concepts – they are different perspectives on the same concept. The general rule is straightforward but has surprising consequences: whenever the correlation between two scores is imperfect, there will be regression to the mean. Ch. 17, "Regression to the mean" p. 181."

"You should inform your gut and then trust it. Discussion at Harvard - Dec 3, 2021[1][2]"

"It is the consistency of the information that matters for a good story, not its completeness. Indeed, you will often find that knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern. Ch. 7, "A machine for jumping to conclusions" p. 87."

"And there is something else, which is very important, I think. Which is that almost all psychological hypotheses are true, that is, in the sense that, you know, directionally, if you have a hypothesis that A really causes B, that it's not true that A causes the opposite [of] B. Maybe A just has very little effect, but hypotheses are true mostly, except mostly they're very weak, they're much weaker than you think... Lex Fridman podcast, 1:04:10. 14 January 2020."

"There is a deep gap between our thinking about statistics and our thinking about individual cases. Ch. 15, "Causes trump statistics" p. 174."

"No one ever made a decision because of a number. They need a story. Michael Lewis. "The Undoing Project: A Friendship that Changed the World". Penguin, 2016 (ISBN 9780141983035)."

"Nothing in life is as important as you think it is when you are thinking about it. Ch. 38, "Thinking about life" p. 402."

"There is no evidence that risk takers in the economic domain have an unusual appetite for gambles on high stakes; they are merely less aware of risks than more timid people are. Ch. 24, "The engine of capitalism" p. 263."

"The lesson is clear: estimates of causes of death are warped by media coverage. [...] The world in our heads is not a precise replica of reality; our expectations about the frequency of events are distorted by the prevalence and emotional intensity of the messages to which we are exposed. Ch. 13, "Availability, emotion, and risk" p. 138."

"He's taking an inside view. He should forget about his own case and look for what happened in other cases. Ch. 23, "The outside view" p. 254."

"Subjective confidence in a judgement is not a reasoned evaluation of the probability that this judgement is correct. Confidence is a feeling, which reflects the coherence of the information and the cognitive ease of processing it. It is wise to take admissions of uncertainty seriously, but declarations of high confidence mainly tell you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in his mind, not necessarily that the story is true. Ch. 20, "The illusion of validity" p. 212."