Nassim Taleb on Confidence Quotes

"The more data you have, the more confident you are likely to be, and the more likely you are to be wrong."

"The charlatan is always more confident than the professional."

"The strategist who is too confident in his plan has already lost the war."

"The gap between what you know and what you think you know is where the Black Swan lives."

"Avoidance of small risks can lead to large ones."

"Skepticism is the highest form of confidence in one's own reasoning."

"Never trust a doctor who is too confident; trust the one who looks at the evidence."

"The Lindy effect suggests that time is the only judge of true confidence."

"Real confidence is being comfortable with your own ignorance."

"If you are not afraid of being wrong, you are not really thinking."

"Confidence is the feeling you have before you fully understand the situation."

"Confidence without skin in the game is just reckless gambling with other people's lives."

"A man with a conviction is a hard man to change."

"The arrogance of the IYI (Intellectual Yet Idiot) is the greatest threat to society."

"The person you are most afraid to contradict is yourself."

"Don't tell me what you think, tell me what you have in your portfolio."

"We value the confidence of the pilot because he has skin in the game."

"The problem with experts is that they do not know what they do not know."

"Avoid the 'expert' who has no skin in the game; their confidence is a liability."

"We are built to be overconfident; it is a survival mechanism that fails in the modern world."

"True confidence is the ability to look at the world without the need for filters."

"Confidence is often just a lack of imagination regarding what could go wrong."

"History is written by the losers who have time to write."

"The fool is the one who is confident when he should be afraid."

"The most dangerous person is the one who is confident and wrong."

"Being confident in a forecast is the first step toward disaster."

"It is much easier to sell ‘Look how much I know’ than ‘Look how much I don’t know’."

"Overconfidence is a byproduct of the narrative fallacy."

"Arrogance is the belief that you have the right to be wrong without consequences."

"Obsession is a necessity for those who wish to change the course of history."

"I am most skeptical of those who are most certain."

"Skin in the game is necessary for the iteration of systems to weed out the fragile and the dishonest."

"Epistemic humility is the only antidote to the arrogance of the expert."