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Charlie Munger and Confidence are inextricably linked through his concept of the 'circle of competence,' which defines where an investor should possess absolute certainty. Munger believed that true confidence stems not from bravado, but from an exhaustive understanding of one’s own limitations. Throughout his career alongside Warren Buffett, he championed the idea that one should only act when they have a significant edge, a principle that requires the confidence to sit still while others are hyperactive.
"Knowing what you don't know is more useful than being brilliant."
"I never allow myself to have an opinion on anything that I don’t know the other side’s argument better than they do."
"It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent."
"We have three baskets for investing: yes, no, and too tough to understand."
"You have to have the confidence to act, but you also have to have the humility to know when you're wrong."
"A lot of people with high IQs are terrible investors because they’ve got terrible temperaments."
"You’re looking for a mispriced gamble. That’s what investing is. And you have to know enough to know whether the gamble is mispriced. That’s value investing."
"The first rule of a happy life is low expectations. If you have unrealistic expectations, you’re going to be miserable all your life."
"You must have the discipline to wait for the fat pitch."
"If you think your IQ is 160 but it’s 150, you’re a disaster. It’s much better to have a 130 IQ and think it’s 120."
"Our game is to recognize a big idea when it comes along, because they don't come along very often."
"You need a different checklist and different mental models for different companies. I can never make it easy by saying, 'Here are three things.'"
"The iron rule of life is that only twenty percent of the people can be in the top fifth."
"The best way to get what you want is to deserve what you want."
"Invert, always invert: Turn a situation or problem upside down. Look at it backward."
"To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail."
"We don’t have a process that we can name. We just try to stay as rational as we can."
"Being right means you have to be willing to be unconventional."
"If you don't keep learning, other people will pass you by. Worthwhile, hard work is what it takes."
"I think that, every time you see the word EBITDA, you should substitute the word 'bullsh*t earnings'."
"Acknowledging what you don't know is the dawning of wisdom."
"The big money is not in the buying and the selling, but in the waiting."
"Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean."
"You must know the big ideas in the big disciplines and use them routinely – all of them, not just a few."
"I’ve seen so many people who are very smart, but they’re like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest."
"If you have a circle of competence, it doesn't matter how big it is. But it is terribly important that you know where the edge is."
"Rationality is not just something you do so that you can make more money; it's a binding moral imperative."
"The way to win is to work, work, work, work and hope to have a few insights."
"You should have a list of things you don't do. I call it my 'not-to-do' list."
"Envy is a really stupid sin because it's the only one you could never possibly have any fun at."
"Almost everyone has the ability to be more certain than they should be."
"We have a passion for keeping things simple."
"Reliability is the most important thing you can have. If you are unreliable, it doesn't matter what your virtues are."
"The world is not just going to give you results for having a high IQ."
"Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up."
Munger’s ideas matter because they differentiate between false overconfidence and earned conviction. By focusing on the circle of competence, he teaches us how to avoid catastrophic errors while maximizing returns on our best ideas.
Apply these ideas by rigorously defining the boundaries of your knowledge and only making major commitments when you have a clear advantage. Practice the discipline of saying 'no' to mediocre opportunities to maintain the resources for when you are truly confident.
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"True confidence is the reward for the hard work of deep understanding and the discipline to stay within your limits."